Contra George Hotz on "AI 2040 and the Cult of Intelligence"

LessWrong contributor Matthew Tromp responds to George Hotz's critique of AI 2040, a scenario-based proposal for managing superintelligence. Tromp defends the plan's plausibility against Hotz's skepticism, arguing that the projected one-year acceleration of AI self-improvement is far more realistic than Hotz allows. The two fundamentally disagree on governance: Hotz frames superintelligence as a personal tool requiring minimal regulation; Tromp warns that concentrated power over advanced AI poses genuine collective risks worth coordinating to prevent.

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