State of the climate: Rapidly developing El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026

The tropical Pacific is experiencing one of the fastest-intensifying El Niño events on record. Carbon Brief reports that the probability of twenty twenty-six becoming the hottest year ever has nearly doubled to thirty-five percent in just four months. The first six months of twenty twenty-six were already the third-warmest start to a year ever recorded, at one point four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. El Niño reached the 'super' strength threshold in record time, with forecasters now predicting it will be the strongest El Niño ever observed. Yet the biggest climate impact comes next year: twenty twenty-seven is forecast to reach one point seven degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which would comfortably set a new record for the warmest year.

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