Simple Dutch books versus Sleeping Beauty halfers

A longstanding philosophical puzzle called Sleeping Beauty receives fresh scrutiny through Dutch books—betting sequences that expose logical inconsistencies. LessWrong contributor jessicata examines whether different approaches to the paradox withstand these financial thought experiments. The problem asks: if you're put to sleep and woken either once or twice based on a coin flip, with amnesia between awakenings, how confident should you be about the coin's result when you wake? Philosophers and decision theorists have proposed competing answers. Through elaborate betting scenarios, the analysis reveals that some approaches lead to sure losses, while the 'thirder' position—assigning roughly one in three odds to Heads—resists Dutch books because it aligns with ex ante optimal decision-making. The implications extend to how rational agents reason about identity and probability.

Listen to this story

Hear this and more stories in a personalized audio briefing.

Open The Chonkerton