Compute growth doesn't make a software intelligence explosion more likely

LessWrong researcher Karthik Tadepalli says a popular argument about artificial intelligence has a flaw. The argument: computing power is growing exponentially, so a software intelligence explosion becomes more likely. Tadepalli's response: that logic doesn't hold up. An intelligence explosion would require improvement rates to accelerate at an increasing pace—what's called super-exponential growth. When computing power grows exponentially, the acceleration stays flat; it doesn't multiply. To trigger an intelligence explosion would require computing power itself to grow super-exponentially, through some feedback loop in chip production. That's a much heavier lift than simply building more chips. The takeaway: more compute does speed up AI research generally, but it doesn't specifically move the needle on whether an intelligence explosion is likely.

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