Will Ronaldo Cry​? World Cup Fans Bet Billions Through Prediction Markets

Around fourteen billion dollars flowed through prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi during this year's World Cup, per Bellingcat's analysis of the platforms. Unlike traditional sports betting, these sites operate like stock exchanges, where users trade on the probability of real-world events. Traders wagered on roughly sixty thousand different outcomes, ranging from tournament matchups to granular specifics—including whether Cristiano Ronaldo would cry during a Portugal game. Bellingcat found that winnings were concentrated among a tiny fraction of users: just one percent of Polymarket accounts took home eighty-six percent of all profits. The median winning trader netted twenty-one dollars; the median loser lost thirty-two. The top single account profited over thirteen million dollars. The pattern confirms earlier reporting that algorithmic traders were commanding an outsized share of the market.

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