Map and Territory, Predictably Wrong (2)

Per a LessWrong post by Manuel del Rio, here are four cognitive biases worth recognizing. The conjunction fallacy: we assign higher probability to two events happening together than to either alone, because added details feel convincing—yet every 'and' can only lower the odds. The planning fallacy: we chronically underestimate how long projects take, but the fix is simple: compare to similar past projects rather than getting lost in details. The illusion of transparency: we believe what we say is obvious to others, forgetting how much context we bring that they don't. And inferential distance: we expect people to grasp technical explanations in a few short steps, but complex societies with specialized knowledge widen that gap. Del Rio emphasizes that humans, unlike other animals, can reflect on how we think and actively correct these errors—a rare and valuable ability.

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