How many packs of Pokémon cards do you have to buy to catch ’em all? Probably hundreds, and most will be quite boring

A mathematician at Griffith University has run the numbers on a question that's haunted Pokémon collectors for decades: how many booster packs would you actually need to complete a set? Per The Conversation, the answer is roughly one hundred to one hundred thirty packs to collect all the basic cards in most sets. But here's the catch: the first fifteen packs feel full of discovery, with almost every card being new. After that, the novelty drops sharply—by pack thirty, most new packs contain just one or two unfamiliar cards, mostly duplicates of ones you already have. Garland's simulation illustrates what mathematicians call the coupon collector's problem, where the first items come easily but filling in the final gaps can take exponentially longer. The takeaway? Opening packs is fun and nostalgic, but you're buying an experience whose novelty fades far faster than your collection actually completes.

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