The Three AI Pills

Per Zvi Mowshowitz, a prominent rationalist blogger, most AI disagreements aren't really about the future—they're about the present. He proposes the "Three AI Pills" framework: take the first if you grasp what today's AI can do, the second if you believe it will get much better, and the third if you think it will soon outpace humans at almost everything. Mowshowitz himself is what he calls "A S I pilled"—as are most employees at frontier AI labs. The real problem, he argues, is that the majority haven't even accepted the first pill; they dismiss AI based on old misconceptions, outdated studies, and harmless failures like recommending the wrong number of pizzas. Until people ground their expectations in what AI actually does today, debates about its future remain stuck in the past.

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