The psychology of overconfidence: why excessive self-belief is often a successful strategy in life

Per The Conversation, researchers at the London School of Economics explore why overconfidence remains so widespread despite its risks. They propose that self-belief functions as an evolutionary signal—like a peacock's tail—but one that's costlier for the less capable than for the genuinely skilled. A novice driver with extreme confidence is likely to crash; an expert with the same confidence is far safer, making that confidence a credible marker of actual ability. This cost imbalance creates what researchers call a "confidence arms race," explaining why overconfidence has become nearly universal and can even be strategically beneficial. As former US President Franklin D. Roosevelt noted about his general Douglas MacArthur, "Never underestimate a man who overestimates himself."

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