Rise of the LatAm petrostates

With crude shipments from the Persian Gulf squeezed since the Iran war started in February, major oil producers in Latin America—Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and Argentina—are stepping in. Production in these countries is surging well beyond what analysts predicted before the conflict, per Semafor. Guyana, once among the hemisphere's poorest nations, is now attracting major investment: the US Deputy Secretary of State is meeting with its president this week to discuss energy cooperation, and ExxonMobil's new offshore drilling rig is set to dramatically ramp up output. The opening is reshaping global oil markets—China is already buying roughly half of Brazil's exports and about eight percent of Guyana's. As these producers gain leverage, even new shipping routes are emerging: the Arctic is becoming a viable corridor for tankers trying to avoid Gulf chokepoints.

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