Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue

LessWrong, an AI forecasting and safety community, updated its timeline for when AI will be capable of replacing human programmers. Rather than relying on assumptions, they anchored their model to real-world evidence: how much faster AI assistance currently makes software engineers work. The updated timeline got slightly shorter, but the bigger finding is increased confidence—three separate forecasting methods now point to similar predictions, suggesting the model is more robust. Reality has been moving at roughly seventy to ninety percent the speed an earlier prediction expected.

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