One Nation wants to cut the tobacco tax. Would that curb the illicit cigarette market?

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson is proposing a seventy-five percent cut to Australia's tobacco tax and a three-year freeze on indexation, arguing cheaper cigarettes would undercut the illicit market. The Conversation (Australia) reports that tobacco companies set retail prices, so there's no guarantee the cut would reach smokers — and it could simply be a windfall for manufacturers. International evidence shows no simple link between tax levels and illicit trade, and Canadian provinces that cut taxes saw more smoking and lower quit rates. Experts say the real solution is licensing, inspections, and penalties, not making tobacco cheaper.

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