Want to spot a winning technology? Here’s the key skill you need

According to Physics World, identifying a winning technology requires more than hype or headlines—it demands a single crucial skill: estimation. Ian Taylor explores how the ability to estimate—whether a technology can scale, where markets are headed, or what hidden costs might emerge—separates the forecasters from the wishful thinkers. In venture capital, product development, and policy, sound estimation often trumps raw innovation. It's a counterintuitive truth: the technologists and investors who survive aren't necessarily the smartest—they're the ones who can do the math.

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