According to Paul Seabright, writing on LessWrong, we harbor a deep bias against stories where textbook expertise defeats tradition. Seabright illustrates this with a Languedoc vineyard from the 1970s: two wealthy owners consulted leading oenologists who promised that scientific principles and optimal growing conditions could rival Bordeaux's first growths. Skeptics assumed disaster. Instead, the vineyard thrived—their wines earned accolades from critics like Hugh Johnson and Robert Parker, retailing for sixty-five pounds a bottle by the mid-1980s. Yet we instinctively doubt such stories. We cling to a narrative that great achievement stems from ineffable tradition and serendipity, not systematic reasoning. Seabright argues this narrative bias shapes how we evaluate systems thinking itself, leading us to romanticize tacit knowledge even when evidence suggests textbook learning can succeed.

Listen to this story

Hear this and more stories in a personalized audio briefing.

Open The Chonkerton