In a thought experiment from LessWrong, Jackson Wagner—a former engineer at satellite navigation startup Xona Space Systems—examines what would happen if GPS satellites were destroyed. The Global Positioning System, managed by the US Air Force since the 1980s, is far more critical than most people realize. Beyond consumer navigation apps, GPS powers supply chains, construction, precision agriculture, power grids, and telecommunications. The system currently contributes roughly two to three percent of US GDP. If GPS suddenly went offline, economic damage could be five to ten times worse than that baseline value—potentially equivalent to fifteen percent of GDP in wealthy countries. Wagner notes that GPS would be a tempting target in a superpower conflict, vulnerable both to physical attack and possibly cyber-sabotage, though major solar storms likely pose less risk. While losing GPS alone wouldn't be civilization-ending, in the broader context of a great-power war, the fallout would be catastrophically worse.

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