A looming U.S.-Iran peace deal could help ease one of the Federal Reserve's biggest inflation worries. According to Axios, reopening the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil and fertilizer shipments—might relieve supply chain pressures that have kept inflation elevated. President Trump signaled Monday that ships are already moving. But there's a catch: even as a deal takes shape, actual recovery will be gradual. Insurance costs for shipping through the strait will likely stay higher than pre-war levels due to mine risks and the possibility of sudden re-escalation. Experts warn that while markets may react quickly to the prospect of reopening, physical flows of goods could take weeks or months to fully normalize. The upshot: geopolitical progress on the table, but an economic payoff that's slower than headlines suggest.

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