The Dynamics of Intelligence Explosions

LessWrong is featuring a new paper by philosopher Toby Ord on the dynamics of intelligence explosions. Ord examines the mathematics behind recursive self-improvement, where AI systems help design ever more capable successors, and whether this could lead to explosive growth. He argues that a true vertical asymptote, or singular growth, is harder to achieve than recent economic-style models suggest, and highlights a neglected factor: the generation time of the feedback loop. According to Ord, singular growth requires that generation time to rapidly approach zero, which makes the most extreme scenarios less likely than some fear. The paper also notes that leading AI companies are increasingly discussing using AI to build its own successor, a prospect they both hope and fear could radically accelerate progress.

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