Durable goods inflation and effective tariffs

Analysis from the FRED Blog at the Federal Reserve of Saint Louis reveals how tariff policy directly affects consumer prices. When tariff rates remained stable, prices for durable goods—appliances, electronics, furniture—were declining, falling as much as three percent year-over-year. But in twenty twenty-five, effective tariff rates surged above eleven percent. The shift is dramatic: as tariffs climbed, the decline in durable goods prices reversed into inflation. The takeaway: protective tariffs designed to shield manufacturing have instead become a driver of consumer price increases.

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