Yesterday, Iran announced it is closing the Strait of Hormuz—the world's most critical oil chokepoint—just three days after the strait reopened under a ceasefire deal. The Iranian armed forces said the move responds to Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the U.S. failure to enforce the agreement, framing it as the "first step" with further measures if the aggression continues. But here's the catch: a senior U.S. defense official says the military is seeing no actual Iranian movements to support the closure. According to U.S. CENTCOM, fifty-five merchant vessels transited the strait safely on Saturday, ferrying more than seventeen million barrels of oil to global markets—a sharp drop from the pre-war average of one hundred thirty ships daily. The timing adds another layer: Iran's delegation is heading to Switzerland for nuclear negotiations, where Trump's envoys are already waiting for talks set to begin Sunday.

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