Counterfactual mugging is a limiting case of Psy-kosh's non-anthropic problem

According to LessWrong, a new analysis of the 'Counterfactual Mugging' thought experiment—a classic puzzle in decision theory—shows it's actually a limiting case of an older problem. The original paradox: a perfect predictor flips a coin and offers you money based on what you would have chosen in an alternate scenario. By reframing it as 'maybe you're in a simulated version of yourself,' the thought experiment becomes clearer and connects to Psy-kosh's problem: imagine ten copies of you sharing a bank account, where only some get to make a decision, but that decision applies to all copies. The author argues these problems are mathematically equivalent, revealing a deep insight about how rationality works when multiple versions of yourself might exist or be simulated.

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