Ranges of Probabilities: What Are They For?

In forecasting, precision can be deceptive. According to LessWrong, author SaltAndMetal explores why some forecasters pin down exact predictions—like thirty-six point five percent for a candidate—while others provide ranges, like thirty to forty-three percent. The real disagreement isn't about numbers. It's about what a probability range represents. One camp says probability already captures all uncertainty; another argues that ranges show something deeper: uncertainty about how your own belief might shift when new evidence arrives. Rather than wishy-washy hedging, the post argues this reflects intellectual humility—an honest acknowledgment that tomorrow's data could reasonably change today's forecast.

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