The Conservation Ethic in AI 2040

Per LessWrong, a new analysis examines the AI 2040 scenario, a speculative model of the world by twenty thirty-six. The proposal describes a dramatic land-use shift: Industrial Special Economic Zones for mining and robot factories, dense arcologies for human habitation, and Historic and Nature Preserves covering ninety-nine percent of the planet. But here's the puzzle: the author points out that today, only about eighteen percent of Earth is protected as nature reserves, and the world is already struggling to hit a thirty percent goal by twenty thirty. AI 2040 somehow claims triple that coverage—a striking conservation success story. The analysis explores two possible mechanisms. First, economic abandonment—if arcologies offer better living conditions and there's no economic incentive elsewhere, people might leave naturally, allowing those areas to be preserved. But that ignores the maintenance such places require. The second option is negotiated conservation—a coordinated strategy to move people out and freeze landscapes in time. That raises harder questions: Who decides whose neighborhood becomes a factory? Can a market-based approach avoid enriching the wealthy at everyone else's expense? And can AI systems really understand the local, contextual knowledge needed to preserve these places if communities actively resist outside interference? The author's central concern: the scenario glosses over whether this conservation would actually benefit ordinary people, or simply impose someone else's vision of what's worth saving.

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