Factcheck: No, Europe’s heatwaves are not being ‘caused’ by declining air pollution

This week, several media outlets and political figures claimed that Europe's record-breaking summer heatwaves are being caused by declining air pollution. But scientists say that framing is simply wrong. A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters does find that cleaner air—the result of decades of air quality improvements in Europe—has played a role in intensifying heatwaves. Specifically, fewer air-polluting aerosols mean less sunlight is being reflected back to space, and circulation patterns in the atmosphere are shifting in ways that can trap hot weather systems over regions for longer periods. But here's the critical distinction: that's not the same as pollution decline causing heatwaves. Per Carbon Brief, climate scientists stress that Europe's heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense primarily because they're occurring in a climate that's already much warmer as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. The aerosol decline has removed a temporary dampening effect, but carbon dioxide remains the fundamental driver. As one researcher puts it, "air pollution never causes or removes global warming—it only temporarily moderates it."

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