The Entangled Dimensions of Decision Theory

LessWrong researcher Ihor Kendiukhov has published a technical analysis proposing that decision theory—the framework for evaluating choices and their outcomes—isn't a single question, but at least three separate, partially independent questions that interact in subtle ways. He maps established decision theories like functional decision theory, causal decision theory, and evidential decision theory onto a conceptual grid defined by these questions, and finds that certain combinations are mathematically coherent while others are not. Per Kendiukhov's analysis, this structure suggests a deeper "metatheory of decision theories"—a unified framework for understanding which decision-making approaches are even possible. The post, which includes an appendix with formal proofs, is acknowledged as highly technical; Kendiukhov notes that open problems remain, and this work may ultimately show that the space of coherent decision theories has real hidden structure.

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