What really happens after Ukraine strikes a Russian oil refinery? Meduza analyzed unique satellite data to assess the damage.

Ukraine has been striking Russian oil refineries with drone attacks, but assessing the actual damage has been difficult—until now. Meduza obtained high-resolution satellite thermal imagery from the German company Constellr, which can reveal which refinery equipment is running or shut down based on temperature changes. Analyzing images of the Kstovo refinery, the satellite data confirmed that a Ukrainian strike on May twentieth damaged the facility's main oil-processing unit badly enough to force a shutdown, corroborating geolocated video of the attack. The thermal analysis reveals equipment damage details that no single video or intelligence report could independently verify, providing concrete evidence of the campaign's impact on Russian fuel production.

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