How inevitable are most accessible hard-tech startups?

On LessWrong, an undergraduate considering a hard-tech startup asked the community: how inevitable are most accessible hard-tech startups? They're wondering if, without the first founder, how much later would someone else develop the same product — smart thermostats or basic robots, for example. The question hinges on whether being first in accessible markets provides real advantage when many people are hunting similar ideas and the underlying problems are already well-known. They're seeking rigorous quantitative research on this question, not just founder anecdotes.

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