America's missing middle: The shrinking 45-64 population

According to new Census Bureau data reviewed by Axios, America's forty-five to sixty-four year-old population has shrunk by two point six-eight million people since twenty twenty. That's a decline of three point two percent nationally — from eighty-four million down to eighty-one point three million. The Northeast saw the steepest drop at seven point one percent, while the South actually bucked the trend with modest growth. Experts warn this could reshape communities: this middle-aged cohort typically includes peak earners who fund local services, experienced managers who run institutions, and caregivers balancing children and aging parents. As younger baby boomers move into retirement and older Gen X fills the gap, migration to the South for lower costs could leave the Northeast and Midwest with fewer experienced workers to maintain schools, municipal services, and civic leadership. The broader context: the U.S. is aging overall, with the sixty-five-plus population growing sixteen point two percent. But the decline of the so-called sandwich generation — caught between younger workers and older retirees — could quietly hollow out communities even as total population numbers look stable.

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