AI 2040: Plan A

According to the AI Alignment Forum, the AI Futures Project has released a new scenario called AI 2040: Plan A. Announced earlier today by Daniel Kokotajlo, it's billed not as a forecast but as a recommendation — what the group argues should happen, rather than what they expect will. The premise: in this scenario, the arrival of superintelligence is deliberately pushed back to the year twenty forty, held off by decisive action from the United States and Chinese governments. Absent that intervention, the authors say it would have landed a decade earlier, in twenty thirty. It follows their earlier AI 2027 project, and like that one, the team says a summary can't really capture it — the whole point was to work through the details step by step rather than lean on broad talk of doom or utopia. The full scenario, along with an audio version, is posted at ai-2040-dot-com.

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