Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040

According to LessWrong, researcher Richard Ngo critiques the AI 2040 scenario for blurring a crucial distinction: it's unclear whether this is a genuine forecast, a recommendation for what we should pursue, or just an optimistic guess. The scenario proposes handing the world to AI by twenty forty—jumping from 'Alignment Is Now a Science' in twenty thirty-eight to 'Passing the Torch' just two years later. Ngo argues that's catastrophically abrupt, and worse: we're solving the wrong problem. Before any global AI handover, both America and China will face internal chaos—Republicans and Democrats clashing over who controls AI, and China's government wrestling with population control as systems become more powerful. It's not a race between countries. It's political upheaval within them.

Listen to this story

Hear this and more stories in a personalized audio briefing.

Open The Chonkerton