Freeing Thucydides

Per LessWrong, artificial intelligence could break the Thucydides Trap—the pattern where rising and declining powers stumble into war because neither can credibly commit to peace. AI systems governing military hardware could enforce agreements between rivals: detecting betrayal and punishing violations in ways no human institution has managed. One path: a single AI simply outgrows all others. The other: facing that risk, powers negotiate a deal, handing military control to an AI they trust in exchange for a settlement that beats either fighting or being outgunned. The piece is speculative—serious questions linger about whether AIs would bargain, whether verification works, and whether anyone would trust one with the bomb—but it sketches an unexpected case for why advanced AI might cool rather than intensify superpower conflict.

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