One Nation’s rise puts the next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government?

One Nation has jumped from six percent in the last election to first or second in recent polls, upending Australian election predictions, The Guardian reports. The party's unexpected strength breaks traditional forecasting methods—preference flows, which once reliably guided pollsters, are now harder to predict. One Nation faces obstacles in urban seats, leaving analysts confronting genuine uncertainty about the next election's outcome.

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