Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028

On the Dwarkesh Podcast, Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis says Anthropic and OpenAI are on track to control most of the world's usable compute by twenty twenty-eight, because they can monetize compute better and outbid everyone else. He notes that about a third of new compute is going to the labs this year, and that share could reach half by the end of next year. The conversation also touches on the more than ten trillion dollars in total AI capital spending expected by the end of the decade, and whether that could lead to a sovereign debt crisis. Patel says Anthropic's already turned a profit in the second quarter, with OpenAI possibly following in the third, and the two labs are shifting compute from inference to training.

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