Integrated Strategic Forecasting: A New RAND x Metaculus Methodology

LessWrong reports that RAND and Metaculus have published a new methodology paper on integrated strategic forecasting, which combines scenario planning with crowdsourced forecasting to help policymakers anticipate future events. The approach breaks down strategic topics into scenarios, drivers, and signals, then turns those into resolvable forecasting questions. The paper outlines a five-step process, from issue scoping to briefing policymakers, and was produced by the RAND Forecasting Initiative as part of its Global and Emerging Risks division.

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