Meduza asked four experts to sketch three likely futures for VPNs in Russia. The best possible scenario may be the one Russians are already living in.

Russia is tightening its grip on VPNs, using both technical and economic pressure. Meduza spoke with four experts about three possible futures for internet circumvention tools in the country. On the technical side, authorities have deployed new methods to identify VPNs by their traffic signatures, and in June, the major VPN service Amnezia faced large-scale DDoS attacks that disrupted it for a month. Indirectly, they're restricting app access and blocking payment methods. The three scenarios experts outlined range from harsh—criminal penalties for use—to ongoing stalemate, where services keep adapting and governments keep blocking. As things stand, that permanent war might actually be the most stable outcome.

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