Five years of war have narrowed to two cities: why the battle for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk will likely decide when — and how — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ends

Five years of conflict have narrowed the war in Ukraine to two cities: Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the Donetsk region. According to Meduza, these two cities, with a prewar combined population of around two hundred fifty thousand, have become the symbolic linchpin of the broader war, potentially determining both when and how the invasion ends. The dispute centers on the Donbas. Meduza reports that twenty twenty-five Trump administration negotiations apparently centered on a formula in which Ukraine would withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, with other contested regions divided along current lines. Ukraine has refused, arguing that ceding the Donbas would split the nation and trigger political crisis — a consequence Putin may be counting on. Yet Russia's path to victory looks increasingly uncertain. Per Meduza, Russia has tried and failed to destroy Ukraine's military infrastructure or break civilian will through strikes on civilian infrastructure — even the most powerful militaries have struggled with such campaigns. The conflict now hinges on whether either side will accept that its core goals have become unattainable at acceptable cost.

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